At the end of the day, for many worldwide, the ongoing mutual attacks between Israel and Iran would seem a contest devoid of any moral high ground and only a bout between two ordinary adversaries, one that nevertheless risks spinning out of control into a larger conflagration, notes Shyam G Menon.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the nation's largest oil firm, has renewed a deal to buy up to 2 million tonnes of crude oil in 2022 from Russia's Rosneft, the Russian oil producer said. IOC had in February 2020 signed a deal with Rosneft Oil Company to import up to 2 million tonnes of oil via the port of Novorossiysk. In 2021, the deal envisaged supply of up to 1.7 million tonnes of crude oil but IOC bought just on parcel or shipload as the cost of transporting the oil made it uneconomical, when compared to alternatives. For 2022, the deal is for the supply of up to 2 million tonnes of oil from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
A year after a Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 and the ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, India's trade with most West Asian countries has largely escaped any major disruption, except with countries like Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. However, repeated flare-ups of geopolitical tensions in the region continue to drive up shipping and logistics costs.
On Tuesday, Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan met Russian oil giant Rosneft's chief executive officer Igor Sechin and discussed raising crude imports from that country, in addition to talks about going for more acquisitions.
India's trade account could come under pressure and there could be an inflation push if crude oil prices remain above the $90 per barrel (Brent) for a prolonged period since India imports over 85 per cent of its oil and roughly 50 per cent of its gas. A rebound in economic activity is bound to lead to higher fuel demand. While India is the third-largest importer of crude, it is a net exporter of refined products, which helps to compensate to some degree.
International oil prices retreated from an over seven-year high but was still above $100 a barrel and continue to pose threat to India's inflation rate and current account deficit. While there are no supply concerns as the oil route remained open, consumers will feel the pinch when PSU oil firms start passing on the increase in international rates through a revision in petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a pause for over three-and-a-half-months in view of elections in Uttar Pradesh and four other states. The government is "closely monitoring the situation" and will "take appropriate steps as and when required", a top official said. Brent crude oil surged past $105 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2014, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
India imported goods worth $4.23 billion in June from sanctions-hit Russia, up 6.8 times as compared to last year, as demand for shipments of crude oil grew at the fastest pace during the month. Crude oil worth $3.02 billion was imported in June, which translates into a share of 71 per cent of the total imports from Russia, commerce and industry ministry data showed. Similarly, during the April-June quarter, India's imports from Russia were valued at $9.27 billion, up 369 per cent on year.
India's trade deficit with Russia continued to widen for the second consecutive year to $57 billion in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), with Moscow becoming New Delhi's largest source of crude oil imports. All eyes will now be on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia during July 8-9, where he is set to meet President Vladimir Putin. This will be Modi's first visit to the Kremlin since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began over two years ago.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its partners, such as Russia, collectively termed Opec+, have decided to cut crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October onwards, at a meeting on Monday. In a step that may increase prices in India, the group has decided to reduce output quotas for October, after a fall in global oil demand outlook. The cut in output is equal to 0.1 per cent of global supply.
The remarks of the top Biden administration officials this week came amid growing disquiet in Western capitals over India's refusal to directly condemn the Russian aggression in Ukraine and its decision to procure discounted Russian oil.
Moscow-based OAO Rosneft Chairman Igor Ivanovich Sechin said the agreement was to ship by sea as much as 10 million tons of oil per year to Essar Group.
Investors are showing some interest in the downstream energy cycle. Refiners and marketers, especially the public sector (PSU) oil marketing companies (OMCs) could see a revival of marketing margins. Lower crude oil and gas prices may also improve margins in industries like paints, logistics, synthetic fabrics, plastics, and fertilisers. In the medium-term, however, there could be a supply overhang affecting OMCs as new refining capacities are scheduled to be commissioned, especially in China, and this may lead to a drop in the refining margins as capacity would be surplus to demand until and unless there's a pick-up in global growth.
India has substantially increased its crude oil imports from the US, with the country's share in India's crude basket hitting a record 14.3 per cent in December, commerce ministry data showed.
Crude and gas supply concerns have eased amid reports that Israel and Hamas have struck a peace deal. The International Energy Agency estimates oil demand may drop slightly in calendar 24 but Opec probably has enough pricing power to maintain $80/ barrel Brent prices. Russia's share of India's crude imports remained strong at about 35 per cent in September 2023.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, is back on a growth path after six months of challenges as it posted better than expected earnings in the December quarter, brokerages said.
Oil and LNG prices are likely to shoot up if Iran is to block Strait of Hormuz, through which countries like India import crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, leading to a spike in inflation, analysts said on the Iran-Israel conflict. The Iran and Israel conflict has escalated over the last few days. Iran first launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel, which retaliated by firing a missile. Crude oil prices have hovered around USD 90 per barrel since the conflict.
Ukraine and Russia need to engage with each other to find a solution to the ongoing conflict between them, India said on Friday after Prime Minister Narendra Modi held wide-ranging talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv under the shadow of the raging war.
It is going to be a long-term proposition for India -- which has a decades-old relationship with Moscow -- to reorient its foreign policy away from Russia, the US has said, insisting that re-aligning one's approach is not like flipping a light switch.
Lisa Curtis, who served as deputy assistant to President Trump and as National Security Council senior director for South and Central Asia from 2017 to 2021, said she expected the same bumps for India and the US, as in Trump's first term, including tariff, dependence on Russia over arms supply and oil purchase from Iran. Curtis, however, said both countries could never enter an alliance but develop a partnership that is "short of an alliance". She hoped them to achieve a cooperation that deters China, but also prepares both countries in case of a crisis or conflict, be it in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, or another flare-up on the India-China border.
'Netanyahu lured Trump into a trap by enticing him with a seductive scenario of massive lucrative business in Gaza's reconstruction.' 'Trump's imagination is running riot, completely disconnected from ground realities,' asserts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Equity benchmarks declined on Tuesday after a three-day rally, with the Sensex falling 359.33 points amid selling in index majors HDFC, Reliance Industries and Infosys. Investors were cautious ahead of release of GDP data, while a jump in crude oil prices also weighed on market sentiment, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex went lower by 359.33 points or 0.64 per cent to settle at 55,566.41.
We very much hope that wisdom dawns on the Chinese side, Jaishankar said in Bangkok.
Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who was representing President Vladimir Putin, left Bali on Wednesday, a day ahead of the scheduled conclusion of the G20 Summit held amid the economic challenges triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war.
The virtual meeting between the two leaders came in the midst of some disquiet in Washington over India's position on the Ukraine crisis as well as its decision to procure discounted Russian oil.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
There is no direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on India in terms of bilateral trade but a surge in oil prices poses considerable risk to the economy, an analyst report said on Friday. International oil prices which have surged past $100 per barrel "pose risks to external stability and currency movement," a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report said. Russia has launched military operations against Ukraine, stoking fears of significant disruption in the region, including loss of life. The West is ramping up financial sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine.
... and there is no stopping its pan-Islamic agenda, cautions Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Russia has been grappling with sanctions slapped by the US and its allies over Moscow's invasion of Crimea.
The pressure on India to take a hostile attitude towards Russia and China was not subtle, but it was guarded, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan after Monday's 2+2 ministerial meeting in Washington, DC.
Russia has already begun delivery of the first S-400 systems, and the question of sanctions, or of a waiver to sanctions, preoccupies New Delhi.
India has flagged concerns over non-tariff barriers (NTBs) faced by its exporters with the Russian government, commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal said on Monday. NTBs faced by Indian exporters are mainly in sectors such as marine products and pharmaceuticals.
In retrospect, it appeared that the bitterness of the war was still strong and the Ukrainian success in occupying Russian territory just a few days ago had added to the complexity of the situation. The positive US response to the visit, however, remains a silver lining in the dark clouds, notes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
Alina Kabaeva was first linked to Putin more than a decade ago, while she was a medal-winning gymnast.
'The Ruble is now down 50 per cent and worth less than one American penny since Putin announced his war'
Putin said the 'policy' pursued by Modi is the main 'guarantor' of relations between the two countries.
'There is a cost to war.' 'The West knows that and so does Putin.' 'The point is, how much of the cost are both sides willing to pay?'
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
Jaishankar said he was confident that Prime Minister Modi and President Putin will meet for an annual summit next year.
Iran has offered to help India meet its energy needs by relaunching rupee-rial trade for export of oil and gas, said Iranian ambassador to India Ali Chegeni. Chegeni said if both the countries resume rupee-rial trade, bilateral trade can touch $30 billion. Iran used to be India's second largest oil supplier but New Delhi had to halt imports after the former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran and re-imposed sanctions on its oil exports.
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